Lessons from Trump’s Young Voter Gains
Young voters have long played a key role in the Democrat coalition. Vice President Harris likely expected that our youngest generations would once again help drive her victory. Instead, President-elect Trump made significant gains with Americans under the age of 30 this election cycle.
In recent presidential elections, the support of young American voters has been a bell-weather of Democrat success. In fact, the Democrats won 60 percent or more of voters 18 to 29 years old in 2008, 2012, and 2020 – all White House victories for the Democrat party. By contrast, Trump won in 2016, and Clinton received just 55% of young voters.
So, are young people becoming more conservative? It is unlikely, given the ideological trends. However, many younger Americans simply put their ideology to the side and went to the polls and voted for their interests – chiefly their pocketbooks.
As I have covered in previous posts, the media has recently been focused on the resilience of young men against the leftward trend of younger generations. While many headlines claim that young men are turning conservative, the data more clearly supports the idea that they just aren’t turning as liberal as quickly as their female cohorts. This trend carried into this year’s election, with President Trump winning young men, but also making gains with young women. Trump achieved a 15 percent improvement with young men from 2020 and a 7 percent improvement with young women.
One of the biggest reasons for Trump’s success was that young voters prioritized the economy and jobs in their decision-making, even slightly outpacing older generations in their pocketbook prioritization. Overall, the economy outranked all issues, spurred by high prices under “Bidenflation.” President-elect Trump capitalized on this and won the trust of voters to turn the Biden/Harris economy around.
Trump bucked the trend of failed Republican politicians and overperformed. Yet, it is important for conservatives to keep in mind that President-elect Trump is a legendary figure in American politics now, who is unlikely to be replicated in our lifetime. In other words: don’t expect the same results for every candidate.
Beyond Trump’s victory, all data indicates that the conservative movement has a lot of work to do if we want to reverse the liberal indoctrination that has captured the hearts and minds of so many within our younger generation. For example, the Action Institute reports that half of Gen Z Americans support socialism, and a 2019 YouGov poll reported that 70 percent of millennials indicated that they would vote for a socialist. This anti-capitalist attitude has evolved into extreme positions among many young Americans. A poll released by Emerson College, for instance, shockingly found that 41 percent of voters under the age of 30 believe that the UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson's recent murder was “acceptable.”
Most evidence indicates that many young Americans cannot be counted on to vote in the interest of economic freedom and liberty any time soon. However, many did forsake their ideology to vote in their own economic interest, supporting President Trump in the last election.
So, what should future conservatives learn from Trump and his campaign to attract young America’s vote in the near-term and support for our values in the long-term? Here are few observations:
1. Tell the Truth
After the pandemic and four years of Joe Biden in the White House, Americans were simply fed up with the lies. Political talking heads and consultants have long told us that if we want to win, conservatives need to change our values. Every time Republicans lose, the Washington elites of the Party conduct “autopsy” reports, essentially telling GOP voters everything that we don’t need to think. Thankfully, President-elect Trump has proven that truth matters. Even if voters don’t agree with us on every issue, if you tell them the truth, I believe we can earn their trust and be victorious in the long run.
2. Be Real
No presidential candidate has ever been truer to his identity than Donald J. Trump. From all indications, he is the same person off camera that you see on TV. To young people, that matters. An American University poll this fall revealed that young voters’ top characteristics that they look for in political candidates is integrity (51 percent) and authenticity (47 percent). After a presidency with no press conferences, zero communication to the public, and no real interviews, a candidate who will tweet whatever he thinks, who is willing to personally spar with reporters, and who will sit down for hours in long-form interviews is a welcome change of pace. In addition, with a social media culture plagued with counterfeit reality and crafted appearances, a candidate opposing political correctness at every turn might just be the anecdote to the cultural waves.
3. Follow Through
The world respects and fears Trump in the White House, because if he says he is going to do it, they know not to call his bluff. He keeps his promises. This is a rare attribute in politics. Believability is an observational trait, but trust can only be earned through experience. Whether someone agrees or disagrees with Trump’s policies, it is highly likely that they trust that he will do what he says he will do. In a culture dominated by broken homes, broken promises, and broken institutions, conservatives can stand out from the rest of the world as being those who can be counted on to keep their word.
4. Empower the Individual
Don’t pander to groups; empower individuals. Trump made significant gains with minority groups as a presidential candidate this election. He did that by speaking to their personal hopes, dreams, and fears as people – not as classes or groups identified by race or any other factor. If you talk to people in terms of personal liberty, you address them as human beings.
5. Embrace New Media
One of the big reason’s that Donald Trump excelled this election cycle was his embrace of new media. Trump’s 3-hour, sit down interview with Joe Rogan was viewed more than 45 million times on YouTube and 25 million times on Spotify and other internet platforms. It was a game changing moment in presidential election history.
In the 2008 election, President Obama became the first major presidential president to embrace social media as an integral part of their campaign strategy. President Trump took social media use to a whole new level. In 2016, Trump was able to go outside the mainstream media outlets and speak directly with voters. In 2024, we witnessed new media platforms begin to replace legacy media in importance within the electorate.
According to Pew Research, 57 percent of Americans say they “often” get news from a digital device (like a smartphone), 33 percent “often” get their news from TV, 11 percent “often” get their news from radio, and just 6 percent get their news “often” from print sources. Regarding news preferences, 58 percent of Americans say they prefer a digital device, 32 precent prefer TV, and only 6 percent and 4 percent prefer prefer radio or print, respectively.
In addition, the podcast space has taken the place of talk radio for many Americans. Some 67 of Americans have listened to a podcast, almost half of Americans listen monthly, and more than one-third listen weekly. In total, nearly 100 million Americans listen to a podcast each week.
Trump embraced the new media culture, and it embraced him. The Left hates much of newer media platforms because they have far less institutional control in the space than in the mainstream media and it is much more difficult to control. Conservatives must replace the influence that other platforms used to have within our culture and we must now build on the momentum that we have found within the new media culture.
Conclusion
While our movement has an uphill climb ahead of us, in terms of long-term ideological conversion of young Americans, our candidates can learn from Trump and his campaign strategies. If conservatives can present genuine, principled, and truth-telling candidates, I believe that we can harness new media platforms and technology to far-outpace expectations at the polls with young voters. We must never compromise our ideas or our principles. However, we must be willing to adapt our methods and tactics for winning at the ballot box and preserving our values for the next generation.